intrinsic value
Giving AI a voice: how does AI think it should be treated?
Fay, Maria, Flöther, Frederik F.
With the astounding progress in (generative) artificial intelligence (AI), there has been significant public discourse regarding regulation and ethics of the technology. Is it sufficient when humans discuss this with other humans? Or, given that AI is increasingly becoming a viable source of inspiration for people (and let alone the hypothetical possibility that the technology may at some point become "artificial general intelligence" and/or develop consciousness), should AI not join the discourse? There are new questions and angles that AI brings to the table that we might not have considered before - so let us make the key subject of this book an active participant. This chapter therefore includes a brief human-AI conversation on the topic of AI rights and ethics.
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Leveraging Fundamental Analysis for Stock Trend Prediction for Profit
This paper investigates the application of machine learning models, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), one-dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (1D CNN), and Logistic Regression (LR), for predicting stock trends based on fundamental analysis. Unlike most existing studies that predominantly utilize technical or sentiment analysis, we emphasize the use of a company's financial statements and intrinsic value for trend forecasting. Using a dataset of 269 data points from publicly traded companies across various sectors from 2019 to 2023, we employ key financial ratios and the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to formulate two prediction tasks: Annual Stock Price Difference (ASPD) and Difference between Current Stock Price and Intrinsic Value (DCSPIV). These tasks assess the likelihood of annual profit and current profitability, respectively. Our results demonstrate that LR models outperform CNN and LSTM models, achieving an average test accuracy of 74.66% for ASPD and 72.85% for DCSPIV. This study contributes to the limited literature on integrating fundamental analysis into machine learning for stock prediction, offering valuable insights for both academic research and practical investment strategies. By leveraging fundamental data, our approach highlights the potential for long-term stock trend prediction, supporting portfolio managers in their decision-making processes.
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Reinforcement learning-based statistical search strategy for an axion model from flavor
Nishimura, Satsuki, Miyao, Coh, Otsuka, Hajime
We propose a reinforcement learning-based search strategy to explore new physics beyond the Standard Model. The reinforcement learning, which is one of machine learning methods, is a powerful approach to find model parameters with phenomenological constraints. As a concrete example, we focus on a minimal axion model with a global $U(1)$ flavor symmetry. Agents of the learning succeed in finding $U(1)$ charge assignments of quarks and leptons solving the flavor and cosmological puzzles in the Standard Model, and find more than 150 realistic solutions for the quark sector taking renormalization effects into account. For the solutions found by the reinforcement learning-based analysis, we discuss the sensitivity of future experiments for the detection of an axion which is a Nambu-Goldstone boson of the spontaneously broken $U(1)$. We also examine how fast the reinforcement learning-based searching method finds the best discrete parameters in comparison with conventional optimization methods. In conclusion, the efficient parameter search based on the reinforcement learning-based strategy enables us to perform a statistical analysis of the vast parameter space associated with the axion model from flavor.
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Exploring the flavor structure of quarks and leptons with reinforcement learning
Nishimura, Satsuki, Miyao, Coh, Otsuka, Hajime
We propose a method to explore the flavor structure of quarks and leptons with reinforcement learning. As a concrete model, we utilize a basic value-based algorithm for models with $U(1)$ flavor symmetry. By training neural networks on the $U(1)$ charges of quarks and leptons, the agent finds 21 models to be consistent with experimentally measured masses and mixing angles of quarks and leptons. In particular, an intrinsic value of normal ordering tends to be larger than that of inverted ordering, and the normal ordering is well fitted with the current experimental data in contrast to the inverted ordering. A specific value of effective mass for the neutrinoless double beta decay and a sizable leptonic CP violation induced by an angular component of flavon field are predicted by autonomous behavior of the agent. Our finding results indicate that the reinforcement learning can be a new method for understanding the flavor structure.
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Incentive Mechanism Design for Unbiased Federated Learning with Randomized Client Participation
Luo, Bing, Feng, Yutong, Wang, Shiqiang, Huang, Jianwei, Tassiulas, Leandros
Incentive mechanism is crucial for federated learning (FL) when rational clients do not have the same interests in the global model as the server. However, due to system heterogeneity and limited budget, it is generally impractical for the server to incentivize all clients to participate in all training rounds (known as full participation). The existing FL incentive mechanisms are typically designed by stimulating a fixed subset of clients based on their data quantity or system resources. Hence, FL is performed only using this subset of clients throughout the entire training process, leading to a biased model because of data heterogeneity. This paper proposes a game theoretic incentive mechanism for FL with randomized client participation, where the server adopts a customized pricing strategy that motivates different clients to join with different participation levels (probabilities) for obtaining an unbiased and high performance model. Each client responds to the server's monetary incentive by choosing its best participation level, to maximize its profit based on not only the incurred local cost but also its intrinsic value for the global model. To effectively evaluate clients' contribution to the model performance, we derive a new convergence bound which analytically predicts how clients' arbitrary participation levels and their heterogeneous data affect the model performance. By solving a non-convex optimization problem, our analysis reveals that the intrinsic value leads to the interesting possibility of bidirectional payment between the server and clients. Experimental results using real datasets on a hardware prototype demonstrate the superiority of our mechanism in achieving higher model performance for the server as well as higher profits for the clients.
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My Response to Open Source "Creative" Generative AI
I have a grayish dual position regarding generative art and, well, basically, generative creativity. One view is extremely cynical, and the other perspective is hopeful. I wrote earlier about this topic here (note: a bit gloomy). Let me start with the cynical view, hyperbolized for ease of communication. I see this as a big tech effort to lower tech wages, reduce negotiation positions of creative workers, push the commoditization of art, create a new scaleable consumer market, and more holistically drive society towards transhumanism.
Regret Minimization with Noisy Observations
Mahdian, Mohammad, Mao, Jieming, Wang, Kangning
In a typical optimization problem, the task is to pick one of a number of options with the lowest cost or the highest value. In practice, these cost/value quantities often come through processes such as measurement or machine learning, which are noisy, with quantifiable noise distributions. To take these noise distributions into account, one approach is to assume a prior for the values, use it to build a posterior, and then apply standard stochastic optimization to pick a solution. However, in many practical applications, such prior distributions may not be available. In this paper, we study such scenarios using a regret minimization model. In our model, the task is to pick the highest one out of $n$ values. The values are unknown and chosen by an adversary, but can be observed through noisy channels, where additive noises are stochastically drawn from known distributions. The goal is to minimize the regret of our selection, defined as the expected difference between the highest and the selected value on the worst-case choices of values. We show that the na\"ive algorithm of picking the highest observed value has regret arbitrarily worse than the optimum, even when $n = 2$ and the noises are unbiased in expectation. On the other hand, we propose an algorithm which gives a constant-approximation to the optimal regret for any $n$. Our algorithm is conceptually simple, computationally efficient, and requires only minimal knowledge of the noise distributions.
Microsoft Build 2021: Latest announcements include browser improvements, Teams updates, and new AI tools
Microsoft's annual Build conference saw a host of new product developments, many of which were focused on its cloud computing technology and updates for consumer services. The company's browser, Edge, and its video conferencing tool Teams, are where the average user is likely to see the most changes, but Microsoft also revealed some tools using GPT-3, the artificial intelligence language tool made by OpenAI. However, the biggest update that users might have been expecting – a new version of its Windows operating system – is still to come, with CEO Satya Nadella saying that the "the next generation of Windows" is coming "very soon". Microsoft says Edge is'best performing browser on Windows 10' The software giant's update to Edge 91 makes it, in the company's words, the best browser on Windows 10. Why Internet Explorer had to die Bitcoin price – live: Ethereum up $1,000 amid'highly positive' outlook for crypto Cryptocurrency has'no intrinsic value' and investors could'lose all your money', says Bank of England chief Cryptocurrency has'no intrinsic value' and investors could'lose all your money', says Bank of England chief There are two reasons for this, Microsoft wrote in a blog post explaining the updates: "Startup boost and sleeping tabs".
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Top 3 Challenges for Data & Analytics Leaders - KDnuggets
As CDOs, CAOs and D&A leaders, we know that the key to success in this digital age is data. As the title states... the heat is on! In the following article I share the 3 top challenges I faced as I led and established a D&A function. I also share ways in which I addressed some of these challenges -- one, in particular, remains elusive, and I would love your thoughts on how you've solved it. In the end, I've placed a poll of the top 10 challenges seen by CDOs, CAOs and leaders of D&A.
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Operationalizing AI Ethics Principles
Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a part of our everyday lives from healthcare to law enforcement. AI-related ethical challenges have grown apace ranging from algorithmic bias and data privacy to transparency and accountability. As a direct reaction to these growing ethical concerns, organizations have been publishing their AI principles for ethical practice (over 100 sets and increasing). However, the multiplication of these mostly vaguely formulated principles has not proven to be helpful in guiding practice. Only by operationalizing AI principles for ethical practice can we help computer scientists, developers, and designers to spot and think through ethical issues and recognize when a complex ethical issue requires in-depth expert analysis.
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